Observations on Feb. 2014 Diamond Comics Chart

The trends for individual series on the comics chart will eventually be gone over in greater detail than I'm able to do by writers over on the Beat. I like to look at general trends more than specific titles.

The Second Issue Drop Watch

The most basic common wisdom of comic book sales trends is that second issues drop in sales. They drop in sales a lot. Retailers generally have to order second issues before customers have seen the first, although in recent years they sometimes have a narrow window to adjust orders up or down between #1 being released and orders for #2 being finalized. I don't have as consistent sources for numbers in the 1990s, but supposedly at the height of the speculator boom drops of well over 50% for a second issue weren't unusual. A few years ago the average drop from #1 to #2 was about 20%. That's only been increasing lately, and this month it's about 30%.  More and more publishers are front-loading the sales to get a big launch, offering ordering incentives, lower prices, higher discounts, multiple covers, custom variants and returnability. It might make sense, since your first issue sales are pretty much your sales ceiling, except in a few cases, and you also have to allow for people who use first issues to sample a series, intending to eventually buy the collection when its available.

Here are the second issue drops for February 2014:

DISNEY KINGDOMS SEEKERS OF WEIRD (MAR) : -63%
TWILIGHT ZONE (DE) : -55%
LEGENDERRY A STEAMPUNK ADV (DE) : -52%
WOLVERINE (MAR) : -47%
VAMPIRE DIARIES (DC) : -44%
EGOS (IMA) : -43%
DEADLY CLASS (IMA) : -43%
PUNISHER (MAR) : -42%
ALL NEW INVADERS (MAR) : -41%
SCRIBBLENAUTS UNMASKED CRISIS OF IMAGINATION (DC) : -39%
BAD ASS (DE) : -36%
TEEN TITANS GO (DC) : -33%
UNWRITTEN VOL 2 APOCALYPSE (DC) : -31%
SERENITY LEAVES ON THE WIND (DAR) : -29%
GEORGE ROMEROS EMPIRE OF DEAD ACT ONE (MAR) : -28%
GFT WONDERLAND ASYLUM (ZEN) : -22%
ROBOTECH VOLTRON (DE) : -20%
JUDGE DREDD MEGA CITY TWO (IDW) : -16%
ADVENTURE TIME FLIP SIDE (BOO) : -15%
GFT TALES FROM OZ (ZEN) : -14%
TMNT UTROM EMPIRE (IDW) : -14%
MY LITTLE PONY FRIENDS FOREVER (IDW) : -12%
AMAZING SPIDER-MAN MOVIE ADAPTATION (MAR) : -11%
INJUSTICE YEAR TWO (DC) : -8%
BALTIMORE CHAPEL OF BONES (DAR) : -5%

So lots of hefty 40% and higher drops. The second issues that seem to do the best relative to the first issue are spin-offs of well established books with known sales trends and the latest in a series of continuing limited series, which generally see a small bump for the first issue, followed by the later issues falling back in line with the overall trend for the series.

Third Issue Drop Watch

Third issue drops tend to be more modest, as retailers can react to people seeing the actual books. They used to be around 10%, but they've been creeping up slowly, closer to 13% now, especially with a lot of double-shipping from Marvel.

MIRACLEMAN (MAR) : -33%

AVENGERS WORLD (MAR) : -26%

JUSTICE LEAGUE 3000 (DC) : -20%

TERMINATOR SALVATION FINAL BATTLE (DAR) : -19%

ORIGIN II (MAR) : -17%

MARVEL KNIGHTS HULK (MAR) : -16%

ILLEGITIMATES (IDW) : -13%

HARLEY QUINN (DC) : -13%

DEAD BOY DETECTIVES (DC) : -11%

HALO ESCALATION (DAR) : -10%

DEAD BODY ROAD (IMA) : -10%

BLACK WIDOW (MAR) : -10%

DOC SAVAGE (DE) : -9%

ALL NEW SOULFIRE (ASP) : -8%

GFT CODE RED (ZEN) : -8%

ALL NEW X-FACTOR (MAR) : -7%

SMALLVILLE SEASON 11 ALIEN (DC) : -6%

STAR WARS DARTH VADER & CRY OF SHADOWS (DAR) : -6%

NIGHT OF LIVING DEADPOOL (MAR) : -6%

ROVER RED CHARLIE (AVA) : +0%

ROVER RED CHARLIE actually managed the rare feat of a sales increase with #3, although a very small statistically insignificant one (+0.39%, or 26 copies, if you were wondering). MIRACLEMAN will be fascinating to see. It's still selling well at 26,000 for what's essentially an over-priced reprint, if one that needs a lot more production than an average reprint, but a few more drops like that (and a few issues coming up with less impressive art) will really take the shine off.

Fourth Issue Drop Watch

Yeah, why not go one more, just for kicks.

UNITY (VAL) : -20%

PROTECTORS INC (IMA) : -16%

LETTER 44 (ONI) : -12%

KINGS WATCH (DE) : -11%

DRUMHELLAR (IMA) : -11%

ASH & THE ARMY OF DARKNESS (DE) : -10%

MARVEL KNIGHTS X-MEN (MAR) : -9%

UMBRAL (IMA) : -9%

PAINKILLER JANE PRICE OF FREEDOM (MAR) : -9%

REGULAR SHOW SKIPS (BOO) : -7%

WRAITH WELCOME TO CHRISTMASLAND (IDW) : -7%

GFT QUEST (ZEN) : -7%

AMAZING X-MEN (MAR) : -6%

MAXX MAXXIMIZED (IDW) : -6%

LEGENDS OF RED SONJA (DE) : -5%

STAR WARS DAWN O/T JEDI FORCE WAR (DAR) : -4%

MANIFEST DESTINY (IMA) : -4%

ALEX + ADA (IMA) : -4%

CRYPTOZOIC MAN (DE) : 6%

BLACK SCIENCE (IMA) : 9%

Historically 5-7% drops are what you'd see with #4, and you hope to settle into "standard attrition" within a few issues, and we're on the high side of that right now, up at a 7% average.  UNITY as an outlier on one side was very heavily promoted, and is quickly falling into line with the rest of the Valiant books. The outliers on the other side are actually starting to show sales increases, which has to be encouraging.

More to come, including books that increased in sales and debuts.