Observations on May 2014 Comics Chart - Launches

Quick look at some of the first issues released in May.

ORIGINAL SIN (MAR) - 147k
Not a terrible launch for a Marvel event, but we already know the second issue drops to about 92k, which isn't that great. It probably won't drop much further, with the accelerated release schedule meaning the whole series is already solicited.

AMAZING SPIDER-MAN 1.x (MAR) - 116.6k
For convenience, this is what I'm calling the miniseries coming out at ASM #1.1 - #1.5. The numbers it's getting are much higher than it would with the exact same contents coming out as SPIDER-MAN: AN EARLY ADVENTURE THAT DOESN'T REALLY FIT IN BETWEEN PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED STORIES #1 - #5, it'll probably be down in the 60-70k range by the last issue, which is pretty good for Marvel in 2014.

NEW 52 FUTURES END (DC) - 70.8k
Second issue was in the same month, dropping 19%, I'm guessing the series might settle in around 40k-45k.

JUSTICE LEAGUE UNITED (DC) - 64.2k
Follow-up to the JUSTICE LEAGUE OF AMERICA series that ended a few months ago, with only a small bump in sales from that. With normal drops it'll be below any issue of JLA by #3.

SUPERMAN DOOMED (DC) - 63.4k
One-shot tying in with the various Superman books, and selling much better than any of them currently do.

THANOS ANNUAL (MAR) - 47.6k
An annual without a regular series, sold about 87% of the last issue of the last THANOS mini-series, which is about normal for an annual.

CYCLOPS (MAR) - 47.5k
Around the same as another solo X-Men launch last month, NIGHTCRAWLER, so expect a similar drop to about 35k next time.

MILES MORALES ULTIMATE SPIDER-MAN (MAR) - 45.9k
Good compared to the other recent Ultimate line launches, but weak historically for Ultimate Spider-Man. Normal drops will have it down below 30k within a few issues, the lowest the title has ever been.

MPH (IMA) - 35.6k
Pretty close to the launch of STARLIGHT a few months ago, so expect a similar drop to around 20k within a few issues.

TREES (IMA) - 31.9k
According to the writer, the orders for this were about 38.5k, which makes sense when you factor in an allowance for returnability and for Diamond sales outside North America. If you assume 10% returnability reduction and 10% foreign sales, that gives you 39.4k. The print run was 50k, and we'll see some of the overprint in re-orders next month. The final orders for #2 were apparently just over 30k, I don't think it's returnable, but will still have the foreign sales to take into account, so expect about a 15% drop, smaller than average these days.

GIANT SIZE SPIDER-MAN (MAR) - 24k
In case you were wondering why they were releasing the "Learning to Crawl" miniseries as AMAZING SPIDER-MAN #1.x.

NAILBITER (IMA) - 22.7k


COWL (IMA) - 20.9k


CHAOS (DE) - 19.5k


DEADLY HANDS OF KUNG FU (MAR) - 19.3k


UNITED STATES OF MURDER INC (MAR) - 18.5k
About twice what POWERS by the same creators sells these days, expect it to be down at that level within a few issues, which might take several years to come out.

STAR WARS DARTH MAUL SON OF DATHOMIR (DAR) - 17.1k


DOCTOR SPEKTOR (DE) - 16.5k
History of the Great Dynamite Gold Key launch of 2014
February 2014 - TUROK DINOSAUR HUNTER #1 - 30.7k
March 2014 - MAGNUS ROBOT FIGHTER #1 - 27.5k
April 2014 - SOLAR MAN O/T ATOM #1 - 22.8k
May 2014 - DOCTOR SPEKTOR #1 - 16.5k

This is the last launch for a while (and is just a mini-series), and I don't know if they have any other viable Gold Key books to relaunch. MIGHTY SAMSON and DAGAR THE INVINCIBLE won't do any better, I think. Maybe SPACE FAMILY ROBINSON...

WOODS (BOO) - 13.9k


BEE AND PUPPYCAT (BOO) - 12.2k


MADAME FRANKENSTEIN (IMA) - 9.8k


LITTLEST PET SHOP (IDW) - 8.2k


CLIVE BARKERS NIGHTBREED (BOO) - 7.8k


GFT WARLORD OF OZ (ZEN) - 7.8k


SHADOW MIDNIGHT MOSCOW (DE) - 7.8k


STAR TREK NEW VISIONS (IDW) - 7.4k


PATHFINDER CITY SECRETS (DE) - 7.1k


DEJAH OF MARS (DE) - 7.1k


BURN THE ORPHANAGE REIGN OF TERROR (IMA) - 5.4k


LAST BROADCAST (BOO) - 5.3k


MARS ATTACKS FIRST BORN (IDW) - 5.3k


AXE COP AMERICAN CHOPPERS (DAR) - 5.1k


WEIRD LOVE (IDW) - 5k


THINK TANK FUN WITH PTSD (IMA) - 3k


BRASS SUN (REB) - 2.8k


BRAIN BOY MEN FROM GESTALT (DAR) - 2.8k


ORDINARY (TIT) - 2.7k


ROGUE TROOPER CLASSICS (IDW) - 1.9k

Observations on May 2014 Comics Chart - Second Issue Drops

A large number of second issues on the Diamond Top 400 Comics chart in May, all of them falling from the first issues as you'd expect. The average drop was just over 30%, but if you do a weighted average, based on the actual sales, it's closer to 47%. The 400k+ drop in copies of AMAZING SPIDER-MAN is responsible for that, not counting it and the weighted average is also about 30%.

Someone pointed out that counting re-orders of the first issue unfairly penalized books that were doing well, increasing the apparent 2nd issue drop, which might decrease as re-orders for #2 come in. Fair point, so the main number is based on first month orders only, with a note if there were re-orders for #1 on the charts as well.

Only a few comments so far, I'll update this if I come up with anything I want to say about the others.

Amazing Spider-Man (MAR)
down -76.7% - 532.6k to 123.9k
-77.3 with re-orders on #1 factored in
Well, everyone saw this coming. Not a record single issue drop, but close to it in recent times, especially if you factor out special cases where the first issues had excessive variant covers or bargain $1 prices. AMAZING SPIDER-MAN had it's own special circumstances, including some order incentives and apparently a very large order from the "mystery box" company Nerd Block (that'll be an even bigger factor in the upcoming ROCKET RACCOON #1 and the larger purchase of it by Loot Crate). Anyway, a normal third issue Marvel drop will put this book at about 100k, and it might settle at 80k-90k, which would still make it the best selling on-going Marvel book. They used to cancel books at that level...

Solar Man Of The Atom (DE)
down -61% - 22.8k to 8.9k
Pretty standard for Dynamite's relaunch of the old Gold Key line, all three non-#1 issues are lightly clustered in sales between 8k and 9k and falling. Hard to believe full colour work-for-hire comics can continue for long at the levels will settle at.

Real Heroes (IMA)
down -52% - 23.7k to 11.4k
-59 with re-orders on #1 factored in
Pretty big fall, already a lot lower than you'd expect a well-established creator from Marvel to be doing with a pretty straightforward super-hero book at Image, although the earlier AMERICA'S GOT POWERS didn't do much better.

Lola XOXO (ASP)
down -45% - 9.2k to 5.1k
Actually not doing that bad for a new series from Aspen, and better than the second issues of a lot of their $1 launch books last year.

Elektra (MAR)
down -44% - 47.7k to 26.6k
A little bit low for a Marvel book on-going book on its second issue, but enough that it might get a full year to see if it catches on.

Flash Gordon (DE)
down -43% - 14.4k to 8.3k

Translucid (BOO)
down -42% - 9.5k to 5.5k

Field (IMA)
down -41% - 11.2k to 6.6k

68 Rule Of War (IMA)
down -39% - 7.5k to 4.5k

Iron Fist Living Weapon (MAR)
down -37% - 53.6k to 33.6k
-40 with re-orders on #1 factored in

Original Sin (MAR)
down -37% - 147k to 92.6k
First issue was also in May, this is kind of a low level for a Marvel event book, it's about the level of FEAR ITSELF from 2011, which is perceived as one of the less successful ones.

Shutter (IMA)
down -35% - 19k to 12.3k
-43 with re-orders on #1 factored in

Star Mage (IDW)
down -35% - 2.8k to 1.8k

Black Dynamite (IDW)
down -34% - 11k to 7.2k

V-Wars (IDW)
down -34% - 10.5k to 6.9k

All New Doop (MAR)
down -34% - 22.6k to 15k

7th Sword (IDW)
down -33% - 5k to 3.4k

Southern Bastards (IMA)
down -32% - 38k to 25.8k
-37 with re-orders on #1 factored in

Dead Letters (BOO)
down -31% - 7.6k to 5.3k

Dexter's Laboratory (IDW)
down -29% - 7.4k to 5.2k

Nightcrawler (MAR)
down -28% - 49.4k to 35.4k

Caliban (AVA)
down -28% - 13.2k to 9.5k

Inhuman (MAR)
down -28% - 58.3k to 41.8k

Ultimate FF (MAR)
down -27% - 23.3k to 17.1k
Not a bad drop these days, but it was a pretty low launch, and no surprise the series is already announced as ending with #6.

24 (IDW)
down -26% - 8.5k to 6.3k

Lumberjanes (BOO)
down -25% - 13.1k to 9.9k
-37 with re-orders on #1 factored in

Sinestro (DC)
down -25% - 46.5k to 34.6k
On track to be a sold secondary Green Lantern family title, selling in the 25k range within a few issues. Which is at least better than LARFLEEZE did.

Danger Girl Mayday (IDW)
down -23% - 9.1k to 6.9k

Aquaman And The Others (DC)
down -23% - 34.1k to 26.2k
Probably down below 20k within a few issues, which is quickly into the cancellation zone for mainline DC books.

GFT Godstorm Hercules Payne (ZEN)
down -23% - 4.1k to 3.2k

GFT Helsing (ZEN)
down -21% - 5.6k to 4.4k

Sandman Overture Special Edition (DC)
down -21% - 14.5k to 11.5k

Angel And Faith Season 10 (DAR)
down -20% - 17.8k to 14.2k

All New Ultimates (MAR)
down -20% - 30.3k to 24.2k

Shadowman End Times (VAL)
down -20% - 7.8k to 6.2k

New 52 Futures End (DC)
down -19% - 70.8k to 57.1k
Weekly book, and being bolstered a bit by being returnable.

Star Wars Rebel Heist (DAR)
down -18% - 24.9k to 20.4k

Secret Origins (DC)
down -15% - 38.7k to 33k
Holds the first issue sales relatively well, smartly going from Superman on #1 to the more popular Batman on #2. Might see some interesting fluctuations on this, depending on the cover subject. Green Lantern on #3 might drop a lot, Harley Quinn on #4 might recover some of that.

Conan The Avenger (DAR)
down -14% - 11.6k to 9.9k
This is the on-going series (or as "on-going" as Conan series go) that held most of its first issue sales. Conan's a pretty known quantity at this point, and sales on it have fallen pretty far from their peak.

Marvel's Guardians Of Galaxy Prelude (MAR)
down -14% - 22.7k to 19.6k
Just a quick little 2-issue mini-series to flesh out a collection before the movie

Transformers Windblade (IDW)
down -9% - 9.9k to 9k
Pretty small drop

Smallville Season 11 Lantern (DC)
down -8% - 12.4k to 11.4k
Digital first series that's now being released as a series of mini-series and specials, so pretty much treated as an on-going for orders, with just a small bump for a #1 and small drop for a #2.

May 2014 Charts overview

So, let's see what we have on the May 2014 Diamond Charts...

The Top 300 Graphic Books Chart has around 163 new items and 137 backlist items, depending on which new printings and new editions you classify as new and which you classify as backlist (I'm treating the new version of WATCHMEN as a continuation of the regular edition, so backlist, but the new version of MURDER MYSTERIES as a new item, or example). Of the 137 backlist, about 100 are in the "perennial" category, I might do a post about the others later this month. Of the 163 new items, you have the usual selection from DC and Marvel making up over a third, the other "premier" publishers (IDW, Image, Dark Horse) another third and then the rest, including the major manga publishers, supplying the balance. Note that Diamond's summary has 246 "graphic novels" shipping, so that means there are a significant number of books which Diamond carried which sold less than the 384 unit threshold needed to make the Top 300. Presumably to be worth publishing a lot of those are primarily aimed at markets outside the comics direct market. I might have a list of those books later this month, too.

The Top 400 Comics Chart had 371 new entries and 29 repeat entries from earlier months (mostly re-orders and new printings, occasionally a sign of the initial order being split across two months). Note that Diamond's summary has 427 new comics. There's some duplication in that count, from variant issues at different prices (like DC's "combo packs"), but that still leaves a few dozen books published which fell below the 1671 copies needed to make the chart, a few of which appear on the extended "small press" chart. Not this month, but someday I want to do some research for a post about those books. Of the new entries that did make the chart, there are 42 second issues, which averaged a drop of over 30%, not surprisingly led by AMAZING SPIDER-MAN #2, dropping over 75% from #1. I'll have the usual post about second issue drops soon, and a post about newly launched books and how far I see them falling.

I also want to start doing a few publisher specific posts, where I look at three-to-six months of publishing activity for a particular publisher, both in periodical comics and books. If anyone has a preference on what publisher to start with, let me know, in a comment here, on twitter (@salescharts) or by e-mail (salescharts on gmail).

New Chart Day Link Roundup

It's Diamond Charts Day, the monthly holiday for numbers fans. I'll update the links as they become available.

John Jackson Miller has your fix here, with the Top 400 Comics, plus some small press books lower in the charts, and the Top 300 Trade Paperbacks. Some commentary as well, over here.

John Mayo has his version at CBR, with the added information he puts on issue-to-issue comparisons for the comics and cumulative sales on the Trades chart. His commentary here.

ICV2 has their version here (Comics, now featuring the full Top 400) and here (Graphic Novels). Commentary article here.

Elsewhere: May 2014 Diamond overview

Diamond has their market overview numbers for May up now, the usual suspects should have articles up based on it soon. The big story will be that the Marvel/DC market share split is much tighter than it has been in months. The full charts probably won't be available until Monday, but we might get a Top 50 or 100 before then.

[and, indeed, here are the Top 50 charts, without order index values]

Some stuff to watch for, ORIGINAL SIN #2 seems to take quite a tumble, already below the last issue of FOREVER EVIL by the second issue. WALKING DEAD #127 probably took a small jump up, since it was a double-sized issue at the regular price, but it doesn't look like it was that big a jump.  On the Books side, three original graphic novels in the Top 10, kind of tells you something that an original X-MEN book is back-to-back in the ranking with an original BLACK CANARY AND ZATANNA book.

Diamond Expanded Chart #301-400

It's been five months now since Diamond increased the scope of their monthly comics chart from the Top 300 to the Top 400. Time to take a look at what those extra data points get us.

Of the extra 500 entries we've gotten, 64 are additional orders for books which shipped in prior months, usually books with heavy re-orders and additional printings. A few titles which show up most often are HARLEY QUINN, SEX CRIMINALS and AFTERLIFE WITH ARCHIE.

Another 16 entries are bargain priced (usually $1) reprints from various publishers, including Dark Horse, IDW and Image, usually of the first issues of recent books which are now getting their first collections out.

That leaves us with 420 entries.  Looking at them by publisher:

Marvel's 9 entries are almost all in their MARVEL UNIVERSE line of books for younger readers based on their animated TV shows. The only exception is CAPTAIN AMERICA WINTER SOLDIER DIRECTOR'S CUT #1 a reprint with some extras tying in to a recent movie.

DC has quite a bit of variety in their 17 entries in this range.  There are 4 entries for "Combo Pack" editions, which they offer for their higher selling books and include a digital code for $1 extra. The rare times they chart these seem to sell about 1-2% of the regular editions, so most fall outside of even the expanded chart. Several licensed books, which are aimed outside of the direct market, fall in this range, including LOONEY TOONS, SCOOBY DOO and the digital-first VAMPIRE DIARIES. One book in their "New 52" line, GREEN TEAM TEEN TRILLIONAIRES, fell into this range with its final two issues. Usually those are cancelled long before they get that low. There are also two oddities, WAKE PART ONE #1, reprinting the first five issues of the mini-series in a non-tradepaperback format and the VILLAINS MONTH 3D MOTION COMPLETE SET of second printings of their 3D gimmick covers of last year for $200.

There are five major mid-range publishers that generally have around a dozen entries on that part of the chart each month.

Dark Horse 71
Dynamite 60
IDW 59
Image 54
Boom 53

And apologies, but I haven't had time to do the full post I wanted to on this topic. Maybe in a few months when we have more data. In the meantime, here are the non-DC/Marvel comics that appeared in the #301-400 range at least three months in the last five, sorted by average sales of those issues (note that some of these had earlier issues in the top 300, which aren't counted in the average).

LADY RAWHIDE (DE) - 4520 average
MIND MGMT (DAR) - 4490 average
OTHER DEAD (IDW) - 4440 average
SHOTGUN WEDDING (IMA) - 4440 average
GRINDHOUSE DOORS OPEN AT MIDNIGHT (DAR) - 4360 average
SHERLOCK HOLMES MORIARTY LIVES (DE) - 4270 average
X (DAR) - 4240 average
HIT LIST (ZEN) - 4210 average
CLIVE BARKER NEXT TESTAMENT (BOO) - 4180 average
DARK HORSE PRESENTS (DAR) - 4110 average
THE LONE RANGER (DE) - 4080 average
ARCHIE (ARC) - 4070 average
PEANUTS VOL 2 (BOO) - 4070 average
FOX (ARC) - 4020 average
ARTIFACTS (IMA) - 3990 average
BATTLESTAR GALACTICA STARBUCK (DE) - 3820 average
CURSE (BOO) - 3790 average
SHAHRAZAD (BIG) - 3790 average
HACKTIVIST (BOO) - 3740 average
CLOWN FATALE (DAR) - 3720 average
CAPTAIN MIDNIGHT (DAR) - 3680 average
FIVE WEAPONS (IMA) - 3670 average
GREAT PACIFIC (IMA) - 3670 average
MINIMUM WAGE (IMA) - 3640 average
NOIR (DE) - 3610 average
GRAVEL COMBAT MAGICIAN (AVA) - 3590 average
JENNIFER BLOOD (DE) - 3570 average
SKYMAN (DAR) - 3570 average
THUNDER AGENTS (IDW) - 3560 average
MIDAS FLESH (BOO) - 3550 average
STRAIN THE FALL (DAR) - 3490 average
SUICIDE RISK (BOO) - 3470 average
HAUNTED HORROR (IDW) - 3460 average
BAD BLOOD (DAR) - 3450 average
TMNT COLOR CLASSICS SERIES 2 (IDW) - 3430 average
INDESTRUCTIBLE (IDW) - 3380 average
A VOICE IN THE DARK (IMA) - 3350 average
BLACK BAT (DE) - 3300 average
REVELATIONS (BOO) - 3250 average
SIXTH GUN (ONI) - 3210 average
FURIOUS (DAR) - 3200 average
GRIMM WARLOCK (DE) - 3180 average
THE SPIDER (DE) - 3140 average
JUDGE DREDD CLASSICS (IDW) - 2770 average
DEATH SENTENCE (TIT) - 2750 average
OCCULTIST (DAR) - 2740 average
JUICE SQUEEZERS (DAR) - 2730 average
GARFIELD (BOO) - 2720 average
CATALYST COMIX (DAR) - 2580 average
DECEIVERS (BOO) - 2570 average
DEADWORLD RESTORATION (IDW) - 2530 average
SINISTER DEXTER (IDW) - 2390 average
TRISH OUT OF WATER (ASP) - 2360 average
ELEPHANTMEN (IMA) - 2330 average
POPEYE CLASSICS ONGOING (IDW) - 2160 average

Elsewhere: Beat Indy April Sales Analysis

Over at The Beat, Chris Rice has the Indy month-to-month sales analysis for the April 2014 comics chart.

Elsewhere: May 2014 BookScan chart

ICV2 has the May 2014 BookScan Top 20.

ATTACK ON TITAN dominates, with the top two spots for the latest and first books, and four other books down the charts. And that's prior to the English language release of the cartoon adaptation this week. Prediction, June's chart will have even more AoT, maybe a full half of the chart.

DC returns to the chart for the first time since January, with the release of the latest hardcover and paperback volumes of the current BATMAN series. Previous volumes have usually been good for three or four chart appearances, so expect to see them again, if they aren't crushed by a Titan.

From Image, WALKING DEAD and SAGA continue to do well, with three entries each. The $60 COMPENDIUM volumes seem to be taking over as the format of choice for the early issues of WALKING DEAD. SEX CRIMINALS also shows up with its first volume, a bit surprisingly, the first time there's been an Image book on the chart that wasn't SAGA or WALKING DEAD since WANTED back when the movie came out in 2008.

Other than those, we had another we had a pair of licensed reference books on Marvel characters, which seems to be how the mass market likes its Marvel books, not in the form of actual comics. And no MIRACLEMAN, oddly enough (though it only had a few days of availability in May, we'll see if it shows up in June). A few Japanese comics not named ATTACK ON TITAN continue to sell well, and a slim volume of GODZILLA tying in to the movie probably sold a lot of copies the first week it was out by people not realizing the Arthur Adams cover promised more than the interiors could deliver. Y'know, sort of like a really good movie trailer for a disappointing movie dropping off after the opening weekend. Is my analogy too subtle...?